Shawdesh Desk:
STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a chance of El Niño reaching “historically strong” levels. Should it reach this potential intensity, the resulting effects could be felt nationwide.
El Niño is caused by trade winds weakening over the tropical Pacific Ocean, which leads to warm ocean waters. During El Niño, the jet stream typically extends eastward and shifts southward. This jet stream serves as a river of air, carrying more moisture along the southern portion of the United States during an event such as El Niño, according to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. El Niño initially developed in early June and has since garnered more strength; this winter season will be the first winter with an El Niño since the 2018-19 season, according to AccuWeather.
For the past three years, El Niño’s cooler counterpart, La Niña, dictated the prior seasons, as noted by AccuWeather. With this reversal, the upcoming winter could see impacts across the nation.
In an advisory issued by the NOAA on Thursday, it was revealed that “a strong El Niño” in the Pacific holds the promise of further developing.
“Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a ‘strong’ El Niño persisting through January-March 2024,” the NOAA said in a release. “There is a 35% chance of this event becoming ‘historically strong’ for the November-January season.”
As El Niño reshapes the jet stream, it ultimately determines the weather from coast to coast.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR NYC?
According to AccuWeather, for New York City and parts of the East Coast, El Niño could potentially provide the recipe for intensified snowstorms, a contributing factor to AccuWeather’s forecast for the winter of 2023-2024.
During a season in which El Niño reigns supreme, the South experiences greater precipitation, while areas across the Great Lakes, Midwest, and the northern Plains receive less, as reported by AccuWeather.
“El Niño will be a ‘dominating factor’ for our winter forecast,” AccuWeather Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
This year’s ongoing El Niño is already markedly stronger than the last El Niño, which was felt in the winter of 2018-19. An enhanced El Niño does not necessarily equate to “strong impacts,” according to the NOAA; it does, however, “increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies.”
In looking forward to the spring, the NOAA anticipates El Niño to linger in the Northern Hemisphere; the administration stating it has a 62% chance to continue during April-June 2024.
Leave a Reply