Touhid Shipar Rafiquzzaman:

THE United States, with a GDP of $24.5 trillion and per capita income of $76,000 and China, with a GDP of $19.9 trillion and per capita income of $14,000, are currently the world’s largest and second largest economies respectively although China has a larger GDP when measured by purchasing power parity. Historically, relations between the two countries have been indifferent with some periods of open conflict and an element of mistrust and suspicion, most notably during the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Presently, the United States and China have mutual political, economic, and security interests, such as the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, but there are unresolved concerns relating to China’s cross-strait interest with Taiwan and whether the USA continues to respect the One China policy, the role of democracy in government in China and human rights situation in China. China is the second largest foreign creditor of the United States, after Japan. Additionally, the two countries remain in dispute over territorial issues in the South China Sea; China claims sovereignty over virtually the entire South China Sea, while the United States comprehends it as international waters and asserts the right for its warships and aircraft to conduct operations in the area.

Sino-American relations, however, have been topsy-turvy ever since the first merchant ship called the Empress of China arrived in Guangzhou in August 1784, shortly after the USA declared its independence on July 4th, 1776. The vessel’s captain, Samuel Shaw, had been appointed as an unofficial consul by the US Congress, but he did not gain diplomatic recognition for the United States. The latest escalation of tension emanated from the recent visit of Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US house of representatives to Taiwan over the unwavering objection of the Chinese government.

Since the 1760s all trade with western nations had been conducted at Guangzhou through a set group of Chinese merchants with official licenses to trade. Some residents of the American colonies had engaged in the China trade before this time, but this journey marked the new nation’s entrance into the lucrative China trade in tea, porcelain, and silk. The first Chinese trading ship arrived in Baltimore, USA from Guangzhou in 1985. Thereafter trade between the two countries commenced and flourished albeit with regular hiccups.

Over the last few decades, China has grown from a manufacturing country to a significant financial power house of the world by way of technological advancement, world class infrastructure, large skilled manpower, abundant availability of energy, industrial revolution, conventional governance, largest middle-income population and popular leadership. They have emerged to be the second largest economy in the world surpassing few prospering Asian and many financially matured European nations. A commendable performance indeed. They nonetheless intend to be the largest economy in the world in the next few years.

Regular and formal trade between the two countries initially gained momentum with the signing of the 1845 Treaty of Wangxia known as a treaty of peace, amity, and commerce, between the United States of America and the Chinese Empire. This happened to be the first of the unequal treaties imposed by the United States on China. According to the provisions, the United States was granted the same privileges that Great Britain had under the Nanjing Treaty of 1842. The United States received additional privileges, including the right to cabotage on preferential terms and the expansion of extraterritoriality. Imperial China’s Qing dynasty signed the treaty with the United States on July 3, 1844. The treaty was subsequently passed by the US Congress and ratified by the president on January 17, 1845. The Treaty of Wangxia continued until the signing of the 1943 Sino-American Treaty for the Relinquishment of Extraterritorial Rights in China.

Since 1949, the relationship, which began with trade, has experienced numerous ups and downs and has become more complex. The new era between the superpowers, however, begun during US president Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China on February 2, 1972. Nixon was the first American head of state to visit the Chinese mainland, after plans for a high-level visit by Kennedy in 1963 that fell through.

The main source of friction between the two superpowers was due to the US’s continued recognition of the Republic of China as the country’s legitimate government and its subsequent obstruction of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) membership in the UN. However, president Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, signalled an unexpected turn of events. Consequently, the US changed its stance and on January 1, 1979, established diplomatic relations with the PRC and recognised it as the sole legitimate government of China; concurrently it terminated diplomatic associations with the Republic of China, which continues to de facto and independently govern Taiwan to this day, albeit often simply as Taiwan. The political status of Taiwan continues to be a major strain on China-US relations.

In January 1950, three months following the Communist triumph in China’s civil war, president Harry Truman decided that America would not use military force to support the defeated nationalists of China who had retreated to the island of Taiwan. In an effort to stop Mao Zedong and the expansion of communism in Asia, Truman changed course in response to the crisis, supporting South Korea and deploying the Seventh Fleet to defend Taiwan. When Chinese soldiers attacked several of Taiwan’s outlying islands four years later, the US threatened nuclear war against China. This was the beginning of the decades long conflict over Taiwan.

After 1980, US-China relations prospered rapidly but have become many faceted. The relationship is one of close economic ties, as well as hegemonic rivalry in the Asia-Pacific. This has been described by world leaders and academics as the world’s most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century. The relationship was best summed up by Harold Issacs, Columbia University Alumni, American journalists and political scientists as ‘respect’ (18th century), ‘contempt’ (1840–1905), ‘benevolence’ (1905–1937), ‘admiration’ (1937–1944); ‘disenchantment’ (1944–1949), and ‘hostility’ (after 1949). In 1990, Jonathan Spence, English born American historian and sinologist and a Yale professor updated Isaac’s model to include ‘reawakened curiosity’ (1970–1974); ‘guileless fascination’ (1974–1979), and ‘renewed scepticism’ (1980s).

Since Nixon’s visit, every US president, with the exception of Jimmy Carter, has toured China. Admittedly, relations with China have especially strained under president Barack Obama’s Asia pivot strategy. Despite tensions during his term, the Chinese population’s favourability of the US stood at 51 per cent in Obama’s last year of 2016, only to plummet during the Trump administration. According to a 2020 survey by the Pew Research Centre, 22 per cent of Americans have a favourable view of China, with 73 per cent expressing an unfavourable opinion. The poll also found that 24 per cent of Americans see China as the main threat to the US. Similarly, surveys of the Chinese people also established a corresponding decrease in favourability towards the US, with 61 per cent to 72 per cent of them expressing an unfavourable outlook. Political scientist Peter Rudolf said that Americans see China as a threat to the established order in its drive for regional hegemony in East Asia now, and a future aspirant for global supremacy. Beijing rejects these notions, but continues its assertive policies and its quest for allies.

The relationship deteriorated sharply under US president Donald Trump and CCP general secretary Xi Jinping, with issues such as China’s militarisation of the South China Sea and Chinese espionage in the United States surfacing. The Trump administration labelled China a ‘strategic competitor’ starting with the 2017 National Security Strategy. It subsequently launched a trade war against China, banned US companies from selling equipment to Huawei and other companies linked to human rights abuses in Xinjiang, tightened visa issuance on Chinese students and scholars and characterised China as a currency manipulator. During the Trump administration, and especially since the US-China trade war began, political analysts have warned that a new Cold War is brewing.

Tensions between the United States and China have persisted under the Biden administration, which made China a key focus of its foreign policy. The more confrontational stance has endured, with the Biden administration focusing on China’s treatment of Hong Kong, its threats against Taiwan, the Uyghur genocide, and cyberwarfare. In response, China has adopted ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ to deny all accusations of human rights abuses.

The United States has often accused the government of the People’s Republic of China of attempting to unlawfully acquire US military technology and classified information as well as trade secrets of US companies in order to support China’s long-term military and commercial development. Chinese government agencies and affiliated personnel have been indicted of using a number of methods to obtain US technology (using US law to avoid prosecution), including espionage, exploitation of commercial entities, and a network of scientific, academic and business contacts. Prominent espionage cases include Larry Wu-Tai Chin, Katrina Leung, Gwo-Bao Min, Chi Mak and Peter Lee.

In addition to traditional espionage, China has allegedly partnered civilian Chinese companies with American businesses to acquire technology and economic data. China is also said to have used cyber spying to penetrate the computer networks of US businesses and government agencies, such as the 2009 Operation Aurora and the 2015 Office of Personnel Management data breach. US law enforcement officials have identified China as the most active foreign power involved in the illegal acquisition of American technology. The People’s Republic of China vehemently refutes such allegations claiming that these are unfounded and only intended to upend Chinese developments and progress the world over.

The recent visit by the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in total disregard to China’s strong opposition and serious disapprovals has added wood to the already sweltering fire. China views the visit as a serious violation of the One China doctrine and the consensus of the three China-US joint communiqués. Chinese government alleges that this trip will have a negative impact on the long-standing relations between the two largest economies of the world and may jolt the basic substance on the relationship that has been somewhat developed through scratchy associations. The visit represents serious contravention on China’s sovereignty and territorial legitimacy, and critically subverts coexistence, harmony and stability across the Taiwan Strait and beyond. China considers this high-profile visit in whatever prelude, ploy and at a critical time as a serious threat to One China policy also committed by the US government. As retaliation and a stern warning to Taiwan, China has in the name of exercise demonstrated its military might and waged social awareness, augmented political dialogues with its people and undertook enhanced diplomatic interchanges with its international friends and well-wishers to garner support to thwart US aggression.

China has persistently cautioned US not to craft any new conundrum within the already strained relationship. The PRC government clearly asserted that US enlargement of military deployment in the region will neither be endured nor acknowledged. It is evident that any nation, power or individual should refrain from doubting the undaunted tenacity, solid resilience and inordinate capability of the Chinese government and people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

On the other hand, the US accuses that China is changing the status quo across the Taiwan Strait resulting in the emergence of tension and forecasting a looming war between Taiwan and China as Taiwan is determined to defend any illegal advances form its large neighbour.

In the process, both the US and China have traded allegations and counter allegations in no uncertain terms. The US averred that it displayed huge self-restraint on the Taiwan issue. China reiterated that the US deleted key expressions as ‘Taiwan is a part of China’ from its State Department website, mentioned Taiwan in its so-called ‘Indo-Pacific strategy’, deliberately exalted its links and increased military hardware sales to the region in general and Taiwan in particularly to exhibit its military capability and precipitated separatist activities for Taiwan’s independence.

Unequivocally, China proclaims that Taiwan is an incontrovertible part of its territory, and the Taiwan issue is entirely China’s internal matter. They expect everyone to respect the principle of sovereignty and territorial legitimacy. The People’s Republic of China believes that should the US want to resolve tribulations, it must demonstrate concrete actions to strictly observe the One China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint communiqués, an irredentist that China believes is the only way forward. The counteractions like the armed drills that China has undertaken in the Taiwan straits is entirely for the purpose of defending its sovereignty, security and development projects.

Taiwan on the other side stated that they began live-fire military exercises to assess combat readiness in response to ongoing Chinese deployment that have included launching missiles into waters off the island of 23 million people. The island nation opines that China aims to scuttle the status quo and segregate Taiwan, the self-governing island republic it claims as its own territory. Taiwan and the mainland are separate and independent jurisdictions. Since the last few weeks, China has propelled military ships and aircrafts across the midline in the Taiwan Strait and launched missiles into waters surrounding the island. Ignoring calls to calm tensions, Beijing has extended the exercises that symbolise a blockade without announcing an expiry date of the exercise.

The US has claimed that they have far more supporters than China on the Taiwan question and China should be condemned by the international community. However, over the past few weeks, many countries have in fact voiced support for China over Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. China claims that around 170 countries have come in support of China and have called for justice, condemned the visit as a serious, irresponsible and an imprudent provocation and articulated their commitment to the One China principle. Although China would not dare to attack the US in any way in fear of nuclear reaction, aggression and extremism have to be avoided in order to prevent rippling catastrophic economic and political consequences throughout the modern world.

Notwithstanding the escalation, China is ready to work with all the developing countries to jointly protect respective sovereignty and national boundaries, conjointly endorse the basic norm governing international relations of non-interference in other country’s internal affairs, and together maintain global and regional peace, coherence and perpetuity.

Bangladesh, being an old and a close friend of China has expressed its solidarity and communicated in unequivocal terms its support of the One China policy and agrees that Taiwan is indeed a part of China. It also offered its assistance in protecting China’s principal interests and fundamental strategies. Bangladesh abhors incendiary extremism but favours multilateralism, conforms to principles of coexistence, harmony and non-interference.

Touhid Shipar Rafiquzzaman is a retired banker.