by Humayun Kabir:

AS OF last week, all speculations have been put to rest about the nominations of the two candidates for the 47th US president. Barring any major surprises, because of the pending criminal and civil cases against Donald Trump that could alter the electoral landscape, it can safely be expected that the 2024 presidential election will be a rematch between Democratic incumbent Joe Biden and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump. There is a wide consensus, as evident from the past two years of polls, that the presidential election is expected to be a close one and that there remains a high degree of uncertainty as winning swing states will be the key to the election. Judging from the past five presidential elections, results in swing states have been the key factor in determining the winner.

Another aspect to note as significant is that demographic composition is known to have a significant impact on the share of delegate votes received by each candidate. An analysis of Trump’s 2016 win shows Trump tended to receive more support in counties with a higher proportion of whites, a higher percentage of US-born citizens, a lower population density, and a lower education level. Furthermore, a survey conducted immediately after the 2020 presidential election by the Pew Research Centre, a public opinion research firm, showed significant differences in voting behaviour by residential area (urban, suburban, rural, etc.) and race (white, black, Hispanic, etc.), generation (Gen Z, millennials, etc.) and education level (high school graduate, college graduate, etc.)

What types of indications are emerging in the polls about the expected voting trend? In the summer of 2023, the Harris-X said that the candidates would need ‘about 37 per cent of the popular vote’ to get the 270 electoral votes. In a head-to-head contest, the polls show Trump is essentially tied with Biden at 43–42 per cent. A third-party candidate in the contest, which is likely, will swing the race to Trump, as most of the votes will come from undecided voters and those against the two-party system. Also, in many of the battleground states, the competition will be fiercest: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and then Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. While the polls are not yet predictive, it is true that in the 2020 cycle, Biden never trailed Trump in the polls in these states and often led handily.

2023 has turned out to be a year that has seen a fundamental challenge to the world order. The rules-based international order that the United States and others developed over the decades is now under threat in three regions. Over half a dozen West European countries have voted the ultranationalist parties in power. A matter of consequence, no doubt. In Europe, Russia’s war on Ukraine shatters the long-standing norm that borders should not be changed by force. While this is also a fact, for nearly 15 years, Russia has been arguing in UN Security Council debates about her objection to granting NATO membership to Ukraine, situated next to its borders in the west. The US was fully aware that an invasion by Russia was only a matter of time. This war has become a matter of international consequence in terms of economic lifeline and peace in Europe as well as in the world. Next, in the Middle East, the war between Israel and Hamas, the elected ruling party in Gaza, since 2016 threatens a dangerous radicalisation of the region involving Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. The US’s unconditional, material, and political support for Isarel has already impacted public opinion across the country, involving ethnic minorities, Gen-Z, and progressive vote banks. Each of these challenges has already displayed a shift towards a degree of displeasure against the incumbent president, Biden. His State of the Union address last week is an example of his recognition of the crisis looming over his candidacy. Indeed, it is a matter of consequence for the country as well as for the rest of the world.

Now, look at the prospects of Donald Trump’s candidature. Trump’s political obituary has been written many times by political pundits. He outmanoeuvered them all successfully. His latest performance in the Super Tuesday Republican primaries marks one more instance of him outlasting those who counted him out. Since Trump first ran for the presidency in 2015, there have been many moments that could have ended his political ambitions, including the 2016 release of the Access Hollywood tape. In the tape, he was shown bragging about sexually assaulting women; his antagonism towards war hero John McCain and then the families of war heroes and disabled veterans; his comments that there were ‘very fine people’ among the white supremacists after the Charlottesville rally; his first impeachment in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress; his handling of the pandemic that killed half a million Americans while he was in office; and his 2020 election loss to Biden, which led, most notably, to charges that he incited the January 6 Capitol insurrection; and also his second impeachment. The latter stands out because many political observers thought Trump’s political career was over after January 6, 2021.

The entire Republican Party’s top establishment failed to foresee the ironclad grasp that Trump would maintain over the Republican Party for so long. Most tellingly, nearly all of Trump’s rivals in 2024 have, at one point or another, warmly endorsed him, denounced criminal investigations against him, and even pledged to support his 2024 campaign regardless of whether he is convicted. Indeed, since Trump’s election in 2016, his aggregate approval rating among Republicans has rarely dipped below 74 per cent, despite or perhaps because he is currently facing 91 separate criminal charges. As much as Trump’s platform and positions may have changed over the course of three presidential campaigns, there has been strikingly little difference in the candidate himself. To the chagrin of his detractors and the delight of his supporters, his time in the White House did not change him even minimally. And his time out of the White House does not appear to have changed him or the public’s view of him, either. An autocratic regime in the USA this time would be of serious consequence to itself and to the entire world.

As for Biden, 37 per cent of American adults say they approve of Biden’s job performance as president, with 60 per cent saying they disapprove. Majorities of Americans continue to express scepticism about Biden’s ability (physical and mental) to handle several issues, including international crises and economic policy. In fact, several key indicators of the 2024 election environment indicate that president Biden, now 81, faces an uphill climb to win a second term. Americans’ satisfaction with how things are going in the country has remained below the levels needed for a successful re-election bid. In less direct measures of the electoral environment, Americans are more inclined to say that they are worse off financially, that daily necessities are harder to buy, and that the US is as respected throughout the world as it was before Biden took office. However, it is relevant to note that Biden’s fate will ultimately be determined by whether Americans’ views on these metrics improve over the course of the year (as they did for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2012), stay the same, or get worse (as they did for George HW Bush in 1992 and Donald Trump in 2020). A vital point to consider is the fact that although the economy is always a key issue in presidential election campaigns, Americans’ confidence in the economy is not always determinative of election outcomes. In the 2004 and 2012 elections, when the Americans showed zero mid-point scores for the incumbent, meaning they neither approved nor disapproved of the economic performance, the incumbent presidents were elected. But with the same scores, Trump lost in 2020.

Now let us take a quick stock of Biden’s nearly four years of governance to better understand the facts against perceptions. It is officially recorded that the US economy has grown by an astonishing 5.2 per cent so far. Inflation dropped sharply, real wages are up, and employment is experiencing a boom. A report by Fareed Zakaria in Foreign Affairs says, ‘the US has been besting its competitors in various crucial metrics for a while now. Currently, the US technology sector dominates the world in a way no country ever has. The value of the top 10 US technology stocks is now greater than the value of the entire stock market of Canada, the UK, Germany, and France combined. The US is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. Larger even than Saudi Arabia or Russia. It has the healthiest demographics of any advanced country, and it takes in around one million legal immigrants a year, which ensures that while Europe and Japan are expected to slowly sink in population, the US will continue to grow.’ Despite all these facts, many argue that America’s domestic politics overwhelm them all. They think that in reality, a deeply polarised society will be paralysed by looming court cases, an uncertain election that is to follow, and a possible constitutional crisis over the results of the election. All this is true and potentially real, thus having deep consequences.

On the international front, the crisis in Gaza has become a major sore point for Biden. Biden’s strategy to hug the Israelis close and pressure them to change tactics has not worked at all. The Israelis are pocketing the support (lethal weapons) and resisting, quite openly, any pressure. This certainly has become a significant electoral risk for him, and it is seen as a weakness on the international stage. At home, a substantial segment of voters has openly declared not to vote for Biden as a mark of disapproval of his continuous support for the war in Gaza. As well, on the Ukraine front, Biden is seeking to adjust his plans due to resistance from a group of Republican congressmen who are averse to the continuation of arms supplies to Ukraine, mostly based on advice from Trump. European allies are worried about the looming uncertainty of the war, which is deeply consequential to Europe’s peace and stability.

Political analysts believe that the US democracy is nowhere near as robust as the economy these days. President Biden was the beneficiary of two years of a unified Democratic-controlled Congress that allowed him to make significant progress on his economic and legislative agendas, as has already been pointed out earlier. Going forward, Americans will continue to hold the president accountable for a potential recession, surging immigration, and persistent economic inequality. On the foreign policy aspects, as indicated, Biden is in a difficult situation as regards the Israel-Gaza conflict as well as the two-year-old Ukraine-Russia war. Younger voters and working-class men of colour appear less enthusiastic about the president, raising questions about whether they will turn out in large enough numbers. The Gaza war has also divided Democrats, with many on the left seeing Biden as doing too little to restrain the Israeli government and military and much too little to protect Palestinian civilians in the war zone and lessen the humanitarian crisis there.

On the relationship with China, lately serious efforts have been mounted to avoid further tension on economic and trade issues, although technology related disputes persist. The issue of abortion rights has seemingly helped Biden, including among the less conservative and female Republicans in most states. This has serious consequences for the long-term political struggle between the two parties.

On social security benefits, Trump remains uncommitted to protecting or improving social security benefits for average Americans. What is very interesting, judging from the campaign speeches of Trump, is that he has not yet put forward a clear agenda, either on domestic or international fronts, to define his campaign strategy. For example, he made an ad-hoc public comment while speaking about Russia, saying that if elected, he would ask Putin to do whatever he wanted. Indeed, this is a scary possibility in today’s world.

As of this time, one can say that the election begins with Biden and Trump displaying as many vulnerabilities as assets. Most Americans wish this were not the choice ahead. Many have openly expressed for a race without one or the other, or both, at the top of their party’s ticket. The Washington Post has stated that ‘barring something unexpected, 2024 will be a rerun of the 2020 election, though in a markedly different country and political climate.’ As regards the general views of the international communities in Europe and other American allies, while there was consensus that the Trump presidency was disastrous, they agree that a Trump 2.0 will even be more cataclysmic. Already, his autocratic inclinations are out in the open. There is no historical comparison for this election. With two historically unpopular candidates, it feels less stable than it appears on the surface.

Humayun Kabir ([email protected]) is a former United Nations official in New York.